Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95e2…7e07 crypto 670 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (275 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$923 (-1%) realized −$923 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%654W / 516L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day274.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$540
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (275 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 885 -56.2% -60.4% 43% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 1170 -42.6% -48.0% 56% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 1170 -42.6% -48.0% 56% 0% -11.8%
all 1170 -42.6% -48.0% 56% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover274.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.0% 0% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -53.0% 0% -20.3%
15% -57.5% 0% -28.0%
20% -61.7% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$923
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses654 / 516
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1170 / 670
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$200
Trades / day274.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1170 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records