Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

95 0x95e4…4e69 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$40 (+4%) realized +$35 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%20W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$6

7 days+$31

14 days+$37

30 days+$37

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-6.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+4.0%	-5.9%	100%	0%	-6.0%
≤30d	20	+3.8%	-6.1%	100%	0%	-6.1%
≤90d	20	+3.8%	-6.1%	100%	0%	-6.1%
all	20	+3.8%	-6.1%	100%	0%	-6.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.1%	0%	-6.1%
10%	-15.1%	0%	-15.1%
15%	-23.3%	0%	-23.3%
20%	-30.8%	0%	-30.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$84

Realized+$35

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses20 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage12d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?	Yes	94¢	100¢	$79	$84	+$5 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 28?	Jun 29	$75	+$4	+5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28?	Jun 28	$74	+$2	+3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27?	Jun 28	$73	+$1	+1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26?	Jun 27	$69	+$3	+5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26?	Jun 26	$64	+$6	+9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25?	Jun 26	$60	+$3	+6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25?	Jun 25	$56	+$4	+8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 24?	Jun 25	$54	+$2	+4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24?	Jun 24	$53	+$1	+1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23?	Jun 24	$53	+$1	+1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23?	Jun 23	$51	+$2	+3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22?	Jun 23	$39	+$2	+6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22?	Jun 22	$76	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21?	Jun 22	$37	+$2	+5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20?	Jun 21	$26	+$1	+4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19?	Jun 20	$26	$0	+2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19?	Jun 19	$26	$0	+1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18?	Jun 19	$25	$0	+2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18?	Jun 18	$25	+$1	+3%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17?	Jun 18	$9	+$1	+7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?	BUY Yes	94¢	$79	1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 28?	BUY No	95¢	$75	23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28?	BUY Yes	97¢	$74	32h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27?	BUY No	99¢	$73	2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26?	BUY No	95¢	$69	2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26?	BUY Yes	91¢	$64	3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25?	BUY No	94¢	$60	3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25?	BUY Yes	93¢	$56	4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 24?	BUY No	96¢	$54	4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24?	BUY Yes	99¢	$53	5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23?	BUY No	99¢	$53	5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23?	BUY No	96¢	$51	6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22?	BUY No	94¢	$39	6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22?	BUY No	94¢	$37	7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22?	SELL No	93¢	$37	7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22?	BUY No	96¢	$39	7d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21?	BUY No	95¢	$37	8d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20?	BUY No	96¢	$26	9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19?	BUY No	98¢	$26	9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19?	BUY No	99¢	$26	10d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18?	BUY No	98¢	$25	10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18?	SELL No	100¢	$26	10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18?	BUY No	97¢	$25	11d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17?	BUY No	93¢	$9	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.80 · official $83.80 (match) · 43 history records