Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x95e7…9561
world · 72 markets active 2h ago
5.0score
+$2,281 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,678 · open −$150
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,551
Realized+$2,678
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses17 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)65 / 72
History coverage70d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 7 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,553
7 days+$23
14 days+$1,295
30 days+$2,596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 38¢ $4,372 $4,239 −$132 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $158 $162 +$4 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $69 $66 −$3 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $35 $17 −$18 (-50%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Trump Coin" in April? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during King Charles visit? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Muslim" during King Charles visit? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $892 −$183 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $3,700 −$17 -0%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $135 −$68 -50%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $1,080 −$879 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -65%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $100 −$70 -70%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $700 −$261 -37%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $50 +$447 +894%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $366 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $79 +$62 +79%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $410 +$143 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $105 +$925 +881%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $3,550 +$440 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $3,100 +$21 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2,800 +$811 +29%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by June 30, 2026? May 27 $7 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $75 −$63 -84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $901 +$1,066 +118%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $208 −$84 -40%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $127 +$152 +120%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $95 +$308 +324%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 23 $16 +$86 +550%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 21 $21 −$11 -51%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 21 $10 +$45 +437%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 19 $50 −$6 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $4 −$3 -66%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 17 $661 −$109 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? May 15 $65 −$21 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $100 −$48 -48%
Will Trump say "Trump Coin" in April? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Trump say "Muslim" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $85 −$59 -69%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 97% +$1,670
politics 1% +$858
other 1% −$32
crypto 0% −$43
culture 0% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $728 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $93 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $670 5h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $69 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $67 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $4,770 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 73¢ $3,683 11h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $67 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $201 23h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $78 24h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $35 28h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $115 29h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 29h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 29h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 29h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $63 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 34h
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 34h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $21 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 4¢ $30 34h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $80 35h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 43h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 40¢ $200 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes 39¢ $267 44h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 44h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 8¢ $55 46h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,000 46h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes 23¢ $171 46h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +69.3% +53.2% 29% 24% -9.2%
≤30d 40 +43.2% +29.5% 35% 28% +3.5%
≤90d 65 +1.4% -8.2% 26% 22% +3.5%
all 65 +1.4% -8.2% 26% 22% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 22% +3.5%
10% -17.0% 20% -6.4%
15% -25.0% 17% -15.4%
20% -32.4% 17% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,551.33 · official $4,551.33 (match) · 260 history records