Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95e8…89e8 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$47 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$726per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% +$31
sports 17% −$71
other 16% −$13
crypto 1% −$20
economics 0% +$5
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
all 46 -18.5% -26.2% 54% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 15% -9.7%
10% -33.3% 11% -18.3%
15% -39.7% 9% -26.2%
20% -45.6% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage606d
Avg bet$726
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 76¢ 28¢ $37 $14 −$23 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jun 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-29? Jan 31 $38 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 29 $38 $0 +1%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Padres vs. Cubs Oct 15 $11 +$9 +89%
Red Sox vs. Yankees Sep 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Tigers vs. Guardians Sep 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Angels vs. Rockies Sep 30 $16 +$14 +89%
Athletics vs. Pirates Sep 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Athletics vs. Pirates Sep 20 $15 +$15 +96%
Angels vs. Rockies Sep 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Sep 19 $35 +$4 +11%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jun 28 $32 +$3 +9%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 27 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $120 by January 31, 2025? May 15 $31 $0 +1%
Will Biden pardon Fauci? Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 22 $15 $0 +2%
Is John McAfee alive? Jan 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Jan 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Dec 27 $48 −$13 -27%
Will Israel beat Belgium? Nov 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-23? Nov 18 $18 $0 -1%
Will Spurs win on 2024-11-23? Nov 18 $17 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Nov 17 $16 +$4 +22%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15? Nov 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8? Nov 10 $70 $0 +0%
Bucks vs. Grizzlies Nov 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Suns vs. Clippers Nov 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Nov 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1? Nov 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Puerto Rico" during the Joe Rogan podcast? Nov 08 $4 +$1 +33%
Spurs vs. Jazz Nov 08 $4 +$5 +113%
Bitcoin above $68,000 on November 1? Nov 08 $44 +$3 +6%
Will JD Vance say "fake news" during the Joe Rogan podcast? Nov 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Hitler" during the Joe Rogan podcast? Nov 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qualcomm acquire Intel? Oct 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $16,969 +$27 +0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Oct 31 $5,295 −$11 -0%
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? Oct 31 $5,299 −$5 -0%
Will Irina Vlah win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? Oct 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will Vasile Tarlev win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? Oct 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $5,331 +$8 +0%
Carabao Cup: Manchester United vs. Leicester City Oct 31 $323 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 76¢ $37 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 98¢ $39 147d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-29? BUY Yes 99¢ $38 180d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $38 210d
Blue Jays vs. Mariners BUY Mariners 55¢ $20 255d
Red Sox vs. Yankees BUY Yankees 56¢ $11 271d
Padres vs. Cubs BUY Cubs 53¢ $11 271d
Tigers vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 41¢ $8 271d
Angels vs. Rockies BUY Angels 53¢ $16 280d
Athletics vs. Pirates BUY Athletics 52¢ $16 280d
Angels vs. Rockies BUY Angels 54¢ $19 281d
Angels vs. Rockies BUY Angels 54¢ $4 281d
Athletics vs. Pirates BUY Athletics 51¢ $15 282d
Fed rate cut in 2025? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 313d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $35 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 365d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? SELL No 94¢ $35 365d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 87¢ $32 366d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $31 401d
Will Solana dip to $120 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $31 522d
Will Biden finish his term? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 532d
Will Biden pardon Fauci? BUY No 67¢ $5 532d
Is John McAfee alive? BUY No 100¢ $10 547d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $10 547d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 547d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? SELL Yes 27¢ $35 547d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 37¢ $34 586d
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-23? SELL No 90¢ $18 586d
Will Spurs win on 2024-11-23? SELL No 82¢ $16 586d
Will Israel beat Belgium? BUY No 93¢ $20 587d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.67 · official $20.74 · 595 history records