Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

95 0x95e9…67b6 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$16 (+4%) realized +$6 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%7W / 5L

Drawdown97%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day10.3pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+16.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+28.3%	+16.1%	58%	58%	+13.7%
≤30d	12	+28.3%	+16.1%	58%	58%	+13.7%
≤90d	12	+28.3%	+16.1%	58%	58%	+13.7%
all	12	+28.3%	+16.1%	58%	58%	+13.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.1%	58%	+13.7%
10%	+5.0%	58%	+2.8%
15%	-5.1%	58%	-7.1%
20%	-14.4%	58%	-16.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +51% → late +6% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$30 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$35

Realized+$6

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses7 / 5

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 13

History coverage2d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day10.3

Drawdown97%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Over	54¢	76¢	$25	$35	+$10 (+41%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Jun 20	$51	+$48	+95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$25	+$29	+114%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$25	+$32	+126%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$50	−$50	-100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Jun 20	$21	−$21	-100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$40	−$40	-100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)	Jun 20	$25	+$34	+134%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Jun 20	$30	+$29	+97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$30	+$26	+86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$24	+$46	+188%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	BUY Over	54¢	$25	28m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	SELL Under	99¢	$99	46m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Spirit	100¢	$54	46m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	BUY Under	50¢	$25	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Spirit	46¢	$25	1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	BUY Under	50¢	$25	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	99¢	$58	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	43¢	$25	2h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)	SELL FURIA	100¢	$59	4h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	SELL Under	100¢	$60	4h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	BUY Under	50¢	$30	5h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)	BUY FURIA	42¢	$25	5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner	SELL FURIA	100¢	$57	5h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	BUY Under	50¢	$20	6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner	BUY FURIA	53¢	$30	6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	BUY FURIA	64¢	$40	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$20	2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	SELL Under	0¢	$0	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	28¢	$24	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	42¢	$25	2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	BUY Under	52¢	$21	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	SELL Aurora Gaming	100¢	$71	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	34¢	$24	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.19 · official $28.94 · 28 history records