Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95ed…f628 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$113 (-47%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$107
crypto 43% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -13.6% -21.8% 52% 52% -36.0%
≤30d 21 -13.6% -21.8% 52% 52% -36.0%
≤90d 21 -13.6% -21.8% 52% 52% -36.0%
all 21 -13.6% -21.8% 52% 52% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 52% -36.0%
10% -29.3% 48% -42.1%
15% -36.1% 43% -47.7%
20% -42.4% 38% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $136 −$107 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $25 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $110 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records