Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
95 0x95ee…4d7c sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-5%) realized −$8 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$8
sports 28% +$16
other 23% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.9% -6.0% 64% 29% -9.9%
≤30d 16 +2.6% -7.2% 62% 25% -10.1%
≤90d 16 +2.6% -7.2% 62% 25% -10.1%
all 16 +2.6% -7.2% 62% 25% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 25% -10.1%
10% -16.1% 25% -18.7%
15% -24.2% 19% -26.6%
20% -31.6% 19% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage34d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$6 -44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $16 +$10 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$7 +75%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +26%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $18 −$14 -75%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $13 +$12 +95%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 22 $4 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $14 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 45h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 45h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $14 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $13 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $16 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $26 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $13 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.04 · official $5.04 (match) · 49 history records