Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95f1…6e6f sports 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,440 (-7%) realized −$1,433 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate77%95W / 29L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$82
14 days−$474
30 days−$1,206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.3% -8.4% 71% 14% -6.9%
≤30d 54 -10.9% -19.4% 69% 13% -15.3%
≤90d 124 -3.9% -13.0% 77% 18% -14.9%
all 124 -3.9% -13.0% 77% 18% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 18% -14.9%
10% -21.4% 7% -23.1%
15% -28.9% 5% -30.5%
20% -35.9% 5% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$93 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$493
Realized−$1,433
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses95 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage60d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Sebastian Ofner 97¢ 96¢ $500 $493 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $501 +$42 +8%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $501 +$36 +7%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $402 +$74 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $401 −$72 -18%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $400 +$7 +2%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $97 −$10 -10%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $100 −$15 -15%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $100 +$11 +11%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $100 +$1 +2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 07 $19 +$1 +6%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $98 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 07 $93 +$6 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $512 −$463 -90%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi Jun 07 $501 −$2 -0%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $501 +$20 +4%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $601 −$113 -19%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Yuriko Miyazaki Jun 07 $601 −$70 -12%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Jun 07 $602 +$57 +10%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Milos Karol Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 04 $100 +$7 +7%
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Philip Henning Jun 04 $100 +$10 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $353 −$50 -14%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $512 −$448 -88%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $701 +$50 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $83 −$81 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $280 +$504 +180%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $30 −$8 -27%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $30 +$1 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $262 −$231 -88%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $122 −$103 -85%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 26 $254 −$248 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $511 −$425 -83%
Chisinau: Ilya Snitari vs Zdenek Kolar May 26 $602 +$78 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame May 26 $201 −$200 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $51 +$37 +73%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Zakharova vs Karolina Muchova May 26 $501 +$26 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino May 25 $500 +$15 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 25 $501 +$20 +4%
Kosice: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Martin Krumich May 25 $501 +$53 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Tatjana Maria vs Elise Mertens May 25 $501 +$36 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov May 25 $501 +$20 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 25 $501 +$20 +4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka May 24 $401 +$20 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch May 24 $401 +$21 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Barbora Krejcikova May 24 $400 +$16 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev May 24 $400 +$8 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti May 24 $400 +$12 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Sinja Kraus vs Belinda Bencic May 24 $401 +$29 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 97¢ $500 2m
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $543 2m
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 92¢ $501 48m
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo SELL Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 100¢ $537 52m
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 93¢ $501 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 99¢ $500 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 100¢ $476 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 84¢ $402 25h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 77¢ $329 25h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 93¢ $401 25h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot SELL Raphael Perot 100¢ $407 26h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 98¢ $400 26h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Marie Bouzkova 87¢ $88 3d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 96¢ $97 3d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel SELL Nikola Bartunkova 60¢ $1 8d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel SELL Nikola Bartunkova 79¢ $84 8d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Nikola Bartunkova 92¢ $100 8d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $111 8d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Zhizhen Zhang 90¢ $100 8d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane BUY Nuno Borges 99¢ $100 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter BUY Antonia Ruzic 94¢ $19 10d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan SELL Adam Walton 100¢ $99 10d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan BUY Adam Walton 99¢ $98 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $99 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Tatjana Maria 94¢ $93 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 2¢ $49 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $512 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 95¢ $499 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 95¢ $501 10d
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu SELL Katie Volynets 100¢ $520 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.72 · official $505.36 · 257 history records