Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:33:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95f1…b251 crypto 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,783 (-2%) realized −$1,780 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate45%119W / 145L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$395per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$475
other 33% −$1,132
world 16% +$3
politics 10% −$169
tech 5% −$5
economics 2% −$6
weather 0% −$7
sports 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 73% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 38 -1.9% -11.3% 76% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 230 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 7% -9.9%
all 264 -12.1% -20.5% 45% 8% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 8% -11.0%
10% -28.1% 7% -19.5%
15% -35.0% 6% -27.3%
20% -41.4% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized−$1,780
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses119 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)264 / 288
History coverage338d
Avg bet$395
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on July 1? No 100¢ 98¢ $154 $153 −$2 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 29? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on July 2? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on July 2? No 99¢ 98¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 29? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 29? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 30? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on July 1? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 30? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on July 1? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 29? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 29? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 29? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 29? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 29? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on July 1? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on July 1? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 30? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on July 1? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 26? Jun 26 $120 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 26? Jun 26 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 25? Jun 25 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 24? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 24? Jun 24 $3 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Jun 21 $7 $0 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 5? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 29? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 27? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on May 27? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 26 $7 +$3 +48%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Hayato Matsuoka May 26 $9 −$8 -84%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 May 26 $5 +$3 +63%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $5 $0 +9%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on July 2? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on July 2? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on July 1? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on July 1? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on July 1? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on July 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on July 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on July 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $215 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.40 · official $496.42 (match) · 1030 history records