Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

95 0x95f6…33df other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate76%19W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$18

7 days+$32

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-20.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+10.9%	+0.4%	100%	33%	-4.4%
≤30d	25	-11.9%	-20.3%	76%	36%	-9.5%
≤90d	25	-11.9%	-20.3%	76%	36%	-9.5%
all	25	-11.9%	-20.3%	76%	36%	-9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.3%	36%	-9.5%
10%	-27.9%	16%	-18.2%
15%	-34.9%	12%	-26.1%
20%	-41.3%	8%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

53% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -37% → late +11% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.0 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$112

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)76%

Wins / losses19 / 6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)25 / 28

History coverage10d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	No	97¢	97¢	$95	$95	−$0 (-0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	77¢	84¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+8%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	69¢	68¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$91	+$4	+4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	+$3	+31%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$75	+$3	+4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$10	+$6	+57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$57	+$2	+4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$54	+$2	+4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$5	+$1	+13%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$48	+$1	+2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$46	+$2	+4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$46	$0	+0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$5	+$1	+13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$38	+$1	+4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$37	+$1	+4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$33	+$4	+12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$8	+$1	+7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	+$3	+57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$2	+21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2	$0	+20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1	$0	+40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	97¢	$95	1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	98¢	$95	2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	94¢	$91	3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	96¢	$75	38h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	96¢	$57	2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	96¢	$54	2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	98¢	$48	3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	95¢	$48	3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	91¢	$46	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	90¢	$46	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	89¢	$46	4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	96¢	$38	4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	96¢	$21	5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	96¢	$10	5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	96¢	$5	5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	96¢	$1	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$9	6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	93¢	$8	7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$15	8d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	88¢	$12	8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY No	69¢	$7	9d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	88¢	$5	9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	88¢	$5	9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	55¢	$5	9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$10	9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$10	9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	69¢	$1	9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	48¢	$1	9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$1	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.33 · official $112.24 (match) · 55 history records