Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95f7…5541 sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (195 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9,206 (+12%) realized +$7,775 · open +$1,431
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate70%19W / 8L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$2,384per market
Trades / day194.9pace
Fees−$1,268est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$5,735
other 23% +$5,022
crypto 1% +$26
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (195 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +8.5% -1.8% 70% 26% +4.2%
≤30d 27 +8.5% -1.8% 70% 26% +4.2%
≤90d 27 +8.5% -1.8% 70% 26% +4.2%
all 27 +8.5% -1.8% 70% 26% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover194.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 26% +4.2%
10% -11.2% 22% -5.8%
15% ← realistic here -19.8% 22% -14.9%
20% -27.7% 19% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$3,058) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$816 vs −$770 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2,421
Realized+$7,775
Unrealized+$1,431
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses19 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,268
Open positions4
Markets (closed)27 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2,384
Trades / day194.9
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 29¢ 72¢ $967 $2,417 +$1,450 (+150%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 59¢ 69¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $10,405 +$7,074 +68%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $2,589 +$1,275 +49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7,453 +$650 +9%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $1,444 −$1,099 -76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2,011 −$61 -3%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $224 +$4 +2%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Netherlands to win the second half? Jun 20 $908 +$26 +3%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $1,198 +$3,920 +327%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $3,602 −$3,600 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $259 −$226 -87%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 20 $540 +$350 +65%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $299 −$298 -100%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $1,000 +$785 +78%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,001 −$700 -70%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $401 −$35 -9%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $6,053 +$557 +9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,012 +$19 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $1,004 +$23 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1,000 +$164 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,002 +$9 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,385 +$26 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,058 +$40 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3,279 −$140 -4%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2,096 +$21 +1%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6,540 +$160 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,053 +$392 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 29¢ $988 1m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $466 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $264 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $218 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $2 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $4 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $264 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $1 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $1 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $22 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $158 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $43 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $1,849 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $1 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $137 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $158 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $2 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $554 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $222 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 74¢ $1,004 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 72¢ $1,615 20m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 72¢ $386 20m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 71¢ $1,137 20m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 69¢ $200 20m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 69¢ $759 20m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 69¢ $58 20m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 69¢ $84 20m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 69¢ $908 20m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes $3 58m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes $7 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,420.61 · official $2,420.65 (match) · 797 history records