Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95fa…bf35 sports 514 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$263 (-3%) realized −$258 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%208W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day67.6pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days−$77
14 days−$627
30 days−$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$378
crypto 22% −$226
other 7% −$76
world 2% +$45
weather 1% +$1
politics 1% +$19
tech 1% −$8
finance 0% −$8
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +9.8% -0.6% 47% 47% -17.5%
≤30d 481 -4.6% -13.6% 43% 40% -15.5%
≤90d 481 -4.6% -13.6% 43% 40% -15.5%
all 481 -4.6% -13.6% 43% 40% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 40% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 36% -23.6%
15% -29.5% 28% -31.0%
20% -36.4% 24% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$258
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses208 / 273
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions33
Markets (closed)481 / 514
History coverage13d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day67.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 54¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 76¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 76¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 55¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 24¢ 29¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 63¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 53¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 52¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 59¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 86¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 83¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 61¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 76¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 70¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 66¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 15? No 72¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 85¢ 79¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 66¢ 59¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 62¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$38 +385%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 +$4 +405%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $69 +$34 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +121%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $21 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 +$5 +495%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 +$1 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $23 −$23 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $30 −$29 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $98 −$96 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $39 +$7 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $3 +$9 +250%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $83 +$69 +83%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $42 −$41 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $26 −$15 -57%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $10 +$30 +291%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 10 $64 +$97 +152%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 09 $17 −$16 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $47 +$37 +77%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $15 +$10 +67%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $77 −$53 -69%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 9m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 30m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 61¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 53¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 52¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 38¢ $1 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $17 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 86¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 52¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.04 · official $34.60 (match) · 1076 history records