Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
95 0x95fb…b663 world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$2
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$13
other 20% +$2
sports 20% +$5
politics 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 33 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 43 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 2% -9.2%
all 54 -0.1% -9.6% 41% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage347d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 31¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $76 +$7 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $181 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $191 +$3 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $130 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $123 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $125 −$6 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $167 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $70 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $110 +$4 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $335 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $30 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $125 −$2 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $2 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $156 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $224 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $7 −$2 -37%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $111 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $122 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $122 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $105 +$4 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $196 −$5 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $110 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $126 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $102 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $134 +$17 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $173 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $33 +$1 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $662 +$5 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $202 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $132 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the Jul 06 $142 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $154 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $83 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $76 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $38 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $20 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $91 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $50 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $55 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $75 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $95 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $112 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $122 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $123 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $24 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $88 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 258 history records