Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
95 0x95fe…c68e crypto 816 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,597 (+5%) realized +$3,697 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate83%595W / 126L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 111d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$594
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -1.7% -11.1% 89% 4% -8.4%
≤30d 152 -3.4% -12.6% 89% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 298 -5.5% -14.5% 89% 3% -8.9%
all 721 +5.9% -4.2% 83% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 7% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 5% -18.9%
15% -21.8% 4% -26.7%
20% -29.4% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$46 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$2,611
Realized+$3,697
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses595 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions95
Markets (closed)721 / 816
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 95 History 721 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $355 $354 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $246 $245 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 29? No 99¢ 100¢ $176 $177 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 29? No 99¢ 100¢ $152 $152 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 29? No 99¢ 100¢ $111 $112 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 28? No 99¢ 97¢ $108 $106 −$2 (-2%)
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on July 3? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on July 3? No 98¢ 97¢ $91 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.50 on July 3? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $74 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on July 3? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $74 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on July 3? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $74 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on July 3? No 98¢ 97¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on July 3? No 98¢ 57¢ $78 $46 −$32 (-41%)
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on July 3? Yes 98¢ 52¢ $78 $42 −$36 (-46%)
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 29? No 98¢ 100¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 29? No 98¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 28? No 98¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 29? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 28? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 29? No 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 27? Jun 27 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? Jun 27 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 27? Jun 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 27? Jun 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 27? Jun 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 27? Jun 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 27? Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 27? Jun 27 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 27? Jun 27 $55 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 27? Jun 27 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 27? Jun 27 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 27? Jun 27 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 27? Jun 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 27? Jun 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 26? Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 26? Jun 26 $109 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down on June 27? Jun 26 $3 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 26? Jun 26 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 26? Jun 26 $288 +$11 +4%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? Jun 26 $397 +$3 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 26? Jun 26 $264 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $9 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 25? Jun 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 50m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 55m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 55m
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $1 55m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $108 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $47 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 2h
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $0 2h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on July 3? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on July 3? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on July 3? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on July 3? BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on July 3? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 2h
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on July 3? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on July 3? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on July 3? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on July 3? BUY No 98¢ $9 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on July 3? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,611.31 · official $2,611.31 (match) · 3500 history records