Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
95 0x95ff…f2be sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,038 (+40%) realized +$4,050 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +107% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%35W / 36L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$4,733
other 24% +$1,173
crypto 2% +$91
world 1% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+87.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +107.4% +87.7% 49% 49% +50.6%
≤30d 71 +107.4% +87.7% 49% 49% +50.6%
≤90d 71 +107.4% +87.7% 49% 49% +50.6%
all 71 +107.4% +87.7% 49% 49% +50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +87.7% 49% +50.6%
10% +69.7% 49% +36.2%
15% +53.3% 48% +23.0%
20% +38.3% 46% +10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +107% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +173% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$122 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$688
Realized+$4,050
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses35 / 36
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions7
Markets (closed)71 / 90
History coverage6d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 68¢ 76¢ $200 $225 +$25 (+12%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 64¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 42¢ 48¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 18¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 +$504 +982%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$486 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$314 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 17 $51 +$486 +946%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 +$333 +650%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$424 +414%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$184 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$137 +67%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$143 +70%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$201 +197%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$67 +66%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain vs. Cabo V Jun 16 $51 +$1,528 +2970%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$352 +344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$111 +109%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$510 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$314 +307%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $204 +$59 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$184 +180%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$669 +652%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$564 +550%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 9¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 2¢ $103 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 9¢ $51 14h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England ( BUY 3¢ $51 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 6¢ $51 14h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 1¢ $103 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $101 17h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 17h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 11¢ $103 17h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $102 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $102 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 19h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $102 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.52 · official $1,037.52 · 143 history records