Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9607…b421 weather 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-2%) realized −$32 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%141W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$1
14 days+$71
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% −$46
other 38% −$53
sports 5% +$11
crypto 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +1.4% -8.3% 61% 56% -9.4%
≤30d 135 -1.8% -11.2% 67% 66% -5.7%
≤90d 218 -4.7% -13.7% 65% 64% -13.6%
all 218 -4.7% -13.7% 65% 64% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 64% -13.6%
10% -22.0% 60% -21.9%
15% -29.5% 31% -29.5%
20% -36.4% 11% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses141 / 77
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)218 / 226
History coverage52d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+18%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 79¢ 64¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 78¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? No 61¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? No 69¢ 58¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? No 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +58%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$3 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$12 +46%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 23 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 +$36 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 22 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$13 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $26 −$14 -57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 −$17 -48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $5 +$2 +37%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 −$5 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $35 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $7 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? SELL No 39¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 24? SELL No 48¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? SELL No 33¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 24? BUY No 86¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? BUY No 61¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? BUY No 69¢ $5 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 26h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? BUY No 64¢ $5 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 53¢ $3 39h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 71¢ $5 41h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 62¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 73¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 73¢ $4 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 78¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 75¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? SELL No 74¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? BUY No 63¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 68¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 78¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 37¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.95 · official $106.95 (match) · 415 history records