Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
96 0x9608…8cf3 sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-1%) realized −$66 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%50W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$210
other 5% +$53
politics 3% +$18
world 1% −$9
culture 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -46.6% -51.7% 33% 33% -70.7%
≤30d 4 -36.7% -42.7% 25% 25% -37.2%
≤90d 100 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 50% -11.5%
all 100 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 50% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 50% -11.5%
10% -21.9% 49% -19.9%
15% -29.5% 44% -27.7%
20% -36.4% 41% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$45 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses50 / 50
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions4
Markets (closed)100 / 104
History coverage70d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 66¢ 66¢ $200 $199 −$2 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 52¢ 52¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 44¢ 44¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 41¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gage Jump: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $15 +$9 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $46 −$30 -66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Zhu Kangjie vs. Ramon Taveras (Featherweight, Prelims May 29 $118 −$8 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel May 27 $109 −$4 -3%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 25 $26 −$24 -90%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 25 $31 +$19 +61%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $44 +$11 +25%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $26 +$6 +25%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $25 +$55 +224%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 18 $41 +$30 +73%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $39 +$32 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $47 +$33 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $47 +$33 +70%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks May 17 $74 −$73 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. May 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $54 +$61 +113%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 25.5 May 16 $61 +$79 +130%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 16 $51 +$48 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 16 $53 +$27 +52%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 16 $45 +$35 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 16 $43 +$37 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 16 $63 +$46 +73%
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) May 16 $39 +$44 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $45 +$30 +67%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P May 16 $57 +$19 +34%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 15 $43 −$42 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 May 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 May 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 213.5 May 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $61 −$8 -14%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $85 +$17 +20%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 15 $44 +$70 +158%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff May 15 $58 +$56 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 14 $61 +$53 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 14 $42 +$41 +97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 14 $49 −$48 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims) May 14 $109 −$4 -3%
Julius Randle: Points O/U 16.5 May 13 $61 +$64 +105%
Parma: Yue Yuan vs Mayar Sherif May 12 $61 +$50 +83%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 May 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $30 +$33 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 41¢ $31 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 66¢ $202 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 44¢ $61 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $61 1h
Gage Jump: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 50¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 2d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes $3 32d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 95¢ $49 32d
UFC Fight Night: Zhu Kangjie vs. Ramon Taveras (Featherweight, Prelims BUY Zhu Kangjie 53¢ $118 32d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Yes 54¢ $74 40d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 BUY No 47¢ $46 40d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ $39 40d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $41 40d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $47 40d
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $47 40d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY Yes 48¢ $61 40d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 BUY Under 38¢ $61 40d
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $122 40d
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel BUY Jake Matthews 51¢ $109 40d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 56¢ $40 41d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $53 41d
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $45 41d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 53¢ $43 41d
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $41 41d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $43 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 47¢ $54 41d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.00 · official $347.00 (match) · 187 history records