Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
96 0x960f…4f36 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$408 (+15%) realized +$416 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$493
7 days+$363
14 days+$395
30 days+$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$128
sports 34% +$516
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +28.5% +16.3% 64% 64% +8.1%
≤30d 17 +26.9% +14.8% 65% 65% +7.6%
≤90d 17 +26.9% +14.8% 65% 65% +7.6%
all 17 +26.9% +14.8% 65% 65% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.8% 65% +7.6%
10% +3.8% 59% -2.7%
15% -6.2% 53% -12.1%
20% -15.4% 29% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$86 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized+$416
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)17 / 24
History coverage9d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $433 +$420 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $375 +$59 +16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $261 +$114 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $123 −$122 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $84 +$38 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $57 +$27 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $46 +$11 +24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $187 −$141 -76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$72 +442%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$45 -89%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$44 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 38¢ $102 10h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $102 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 11h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 50¢ $433 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $375 37h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $261 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $123 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $84 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $57 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $46 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $46 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $187 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $71 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $692.43 · official $692.43 (match) · 38 history records