Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9610…96c4
world · 183 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$157 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$148 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$77
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses66 / 97
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions20
Markets (closed)163 / 183
History coverage535d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 20 History 163 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$18
14 days+$24
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) T1 35¢ 100¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+183%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 24¢ 27¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 72¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 71¢ 62¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 30¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? No 16¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 67¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 54¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 46¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 26¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner JD Gaming 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$11 +130%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +24%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 13 $6 +$2 +33%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$3 +29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$3 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +173%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $21 +$5 +24%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +12%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $32 −$7 -21%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -9%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $8 −$7 -95%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $113 +$1 +1%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $33 +$7 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $8 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% −$112
world 20% −$21
politics 6% −$1
other 5% +$5
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$9
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 28¢ $1 2h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 39¢ $4 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 30¢ $3 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $3 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 5h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 31¢ $2 7h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $2 8h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $4 9h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 12h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 12h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $1 13h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $3 13h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 14h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 14h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $3 14h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 51¢ $1 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 51¢ $5 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 51¢ $3 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -5.1% -14.1% 52% 30% -6.7%
≤30d 85 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 33% -6.5%
≤90d 139 -17.5% -25.4% 42% 29% -19.6%
all 163 -13.1% -21.4% 40% 26% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 26% -12.3%
10% -28.9% 18% -20.7%
15% -35.8% 12% -28.3%
20% -42.1% 11% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.40 · official $77.40 (match) · 1098 history records