Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
96 0x9612…9d6d politics 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$2
other 25% $0
sports 6% $0
world 6% $0
tech 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage100d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 24 $109 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $219 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $110 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $110 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $112 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $112 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $112 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $109 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $109 22h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $109 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $109 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $109 18d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $109 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 28d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 34d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 36d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 38d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $109 41d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $109 41d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $109 46d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 47d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 67d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 67d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $111 71d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $111 72d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $111 74d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $112 74d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 80d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 81d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $112 86d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $112 87d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $112 90d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $112 91d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 95d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 96d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records