Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
96 0x9615…d4cb world 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-9%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$5
sports 16% −$3
other 14% −$3
crypto 6% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 4 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -12.8%
all 19 -17.1% -25.0% 47% 5% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 5% -17.8%
10% -32.1% 0% -25.6%
15% -38.7% 0% -32.8%
20% -44.7% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage472d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 −$3 -10%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $1 $0 +21%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Mar 18 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 09 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $33 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $22 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $10 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $27 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $30 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $22 14d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $0 359d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $0 359d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $0 359d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $0 359d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $0 359d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $0 359d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $0 359d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $0 359d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $0 359d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $0 359d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 366d
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $0 381d
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $0 381d
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $0 381d
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $0 381d
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $0 381d
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $0 381d
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $0 381d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $6 381d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records