Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
96 0x9616…9549 other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$326 (-0%) realized −$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%29W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,280per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$890now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$19
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$452
politics 29% −$64
sports 16% +$181
world 5% −$8
economics 2% −$5
culture 2% −$5
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 +3.4% -6.4% 14% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 95 +1.9% -7.8% 9% 6% -10.0%
all 150 +2.7% -7.0% 19% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 14% -9.7%
10% -15.9% 14% -18.3%
15% -24.1% 12% -26.2%
20% -31.5% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,575) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$18 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$890
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses29 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,280
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $890 $890 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,757 −$3 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 17 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $832 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,502 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $631 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $288 +$1 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $814 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $669 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $58 +$25 +44%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 05 $41 +$12 +29%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,090 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,302 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,901 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $324 +$1 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,938 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,582 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $458 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $73 +$40 +55%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,048 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $570 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $671 −$1 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $808 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $724 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $458 −$1 -0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 20 $913 −$913 -100%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,706 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $3,922 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $3,981 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $3,049 −$3 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1,425 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $890 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 4h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 6h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $628 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $629 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $540 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $541 4d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $751 4d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $752 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $831 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $832 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $907 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $908 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $818 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $820 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $902 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $903 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $630 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $631 8d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $288 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $822 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $824 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $824 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $825 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $802 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $803 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $812 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 13d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $930 13d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $931 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $889.81 · official $889.81 (match) · 469 history records