Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9618…5f7a crypto 641 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-3%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%108W / 529L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$10
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$185
other 4% +$2
world 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-53.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +17.5% +6.3% 34% 34% -21.6%
≤30d 90 +15.1% +4.1% 52% 52% -9.8%
≤90d 94 +20.6% +9.1% 53% 53% -11.3%
all 637 -48.2% -53.2% 17% 17% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.2% 17% -34.3%
10% -57.7% 17% -40.5%
15% -61.7% 17% -46.3%
20% -65.5% 14% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses108 / 529
Open positions1
Markets (closed)637 / 641
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 637 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$5 +3022%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +186%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 1047 history records