Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9619…2404 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%22W / 26L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
other 28% +$6
politics 11% +$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 5% −$2
weather 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 16 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 6% -9.5%
all 48 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 4% -9.1%
10% -19.3% 2% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses22 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage478d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $16 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $67 +$2 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $52 −$3 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $38 +$6 +15%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $50 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $20 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $18 $0 -2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $21 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11? Apr 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $2 $0 +9%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 04 $18 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 01 $18 $0 -0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Mar 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Mar 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 14-17m on opening weekend? Mar 30 $20 +$1 +4%
Human case of new COVID disease before April? Mar 29 $21 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 28 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 22 $17 +$4 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $50 46m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $50 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $40 35h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $40 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $15 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $32 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $49 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $48 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $52 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $44 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $21 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $17 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.16 (match) · 160 history records