Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9619…0591 other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$723 (-9%) realized −$723 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 33L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$411
7 days−$1,058
14 days−$301
30 days−$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$710
sports 27% −$382
crypto 18% −$777
finance 15% −$391
tech 3% −$127
politics 1% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -34.2% -40.4% 23% 19% -37.0%
≤30d 33 -29.5% -36.2% 24% 21% -15.8%
≤90d 43 -27.1% -34.0% 23% 19% -21.8%
all 43 -27.1% -34.0% 23% 19% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 19% -21.8%
10% -40.3% 19% -29.3%
15% -46.1% 14% -36.1%
20% -51.4% 9% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$79 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$723
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage46d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $406 −$21 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $106 +$66 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $109 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $128 −$123 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $457 −$441 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $41 −$39 -94%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? Jun 18 $20 −$13 -68%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $22 −$6 -28%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Jun 18 $65 −$54 -83%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $38 −$9 -22%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? Jun 18 $76 −$49 -64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $40 −$3 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $53 +$5 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 18 $64 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $461 −$177 -38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$14 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $338 +$422 +125%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$20 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $95 +$45 +48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $119 −$41 -34%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 in June? Jun 15 $36 −$11 -30%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $272 in June? Jun 15 $82 −$53 -65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $57 +$53 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $358 −$358 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Micron (MU) close above $1,000 end of June? Jun 09 $234 −$170 -73%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 09 $587 +$928 +158%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 15 $799 −$243 -30%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 10 $652 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 10 $554 −$40 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 06 $124 −$56 -46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 06 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $285 −$3 -1%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $510 −$323 -63%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 06 $108 −$14 -13%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 06 $103 −$61 -59%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 06 $49 +$14 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $385 3m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $289 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $128 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 2h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $27 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $36 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $37 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $57 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records