Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
96 0x961a…e91c crypto 2177 markets active 3h ago coverage 56d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$486 (+2%) realized +$532 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%1194W / 655L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$1,527
sports 35% +$843
other 14% +$445
world 4% +$124
finance 0% −$40
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 402 +21.4% +9.9% 69% 69% +17.7%
≤30d 1515 +14.9% +3.9% 67% 67% +9.2%
≤90d 1849 +11.9% +1.3% 65% 64% +2.4%
all 1849 +11.9% +1.3% 65% 64% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 64% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 64% -7.4%
15% -17.3% 62% -16.3%
20% -25.4% 57% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$532
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1194 / 655
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1849 / 2177
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1849 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No 68¢ 84¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+23%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 65¢ 74¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No 65¢ 72¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 22¢ 12¢ $40 $23 −$17 (-43%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-41%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 51¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $37 $2 −$35 (-94%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 34¢ 11¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 33¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$5 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$5 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$12 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$9 +57%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$5 +62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 −$40 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $40 +$10 +26%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 +$70 +172%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +61%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$4 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$7 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$3 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$4 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$15 +185%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$5 +63%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$12 +56%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $41 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $8 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 16h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $40 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 17h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $41 18h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $41 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 19h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 20h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 21h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $8 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 21h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.65 · official $166.65 (match) · 3500 history records