Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x961b…8183 weather 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 682d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate86%142W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$49
other 19% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.1% -6.8% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 3 +3.1% -6.8% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤90d 166 -2.0% -11.3% 86% 1% -10.8%
all 166 -2.0% -11.3% 86% 1% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 1% -10.8%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

682d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses142 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage682d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $111 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $501 +$31 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 8? May 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 8? May 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 8? May 08 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 8? May 08 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 8? May 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9? May 08 $29 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8? May 08 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 8? May 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 7? May 08 $0 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 8? May 07 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 8? May 07 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 8? May 07 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 7? May 07 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 7? May 07 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 7? May 07 $20 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 7? May 07 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 8? May 07 $19 −$5 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 7? May 07 $20 −$8 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8? May 07 $15 −$4 -29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? May 07 $20 −$16 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 8? May 07 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 7? May 07 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 9? May 07 $10 −$8 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 7? May 07 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on May 7? May 07 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 7? May 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 7? May 07 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 7? May 07 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 8? May 07 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 7? May 07 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 7? May 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8? May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 7? May 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 6? May 06 $20 −$8 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 6? May 06 $40 −$19 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 6? May 06 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on May 6? May 06 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on May 6? May 06 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 6? May 06 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 6? May 06 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 6? May 06 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 6? May 06 $20 −$11 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 6? May 06 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 6? May 06 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 6? May 06 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 7? May 06 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 6? May 06 $13 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 8? SELL No 98¢ $4 46d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 8? SELL No 98¢ $1 46d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 8? SELL No 100¢ $35 46d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 8? SELL No 100¢ $24 46d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 8? SELL No 100¢ $44 46d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 8? SELL No 98¢ $21 46d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9? SELL Yes 19¢ $29 46d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8? SELL No 100¢ $103 46d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 46d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 46d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 8? SELL No 98¢ $21 46d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 8? BUY No 99¢ $100 46d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8? BUY No 97¢ $100 46d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 8? BUY No 97¢ $100 46d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 8? SELL No 98¢ $10 46d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 8? SELL No 98¢ $17 46d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 8? SELL No 98¢ $22 46d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 7? SELL No 98¢ $3 47d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 7? SELL No 98¢ $1 47d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 7? SELL No 98¢ $16 47d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 7? SELL No 98¢ $21 47d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 7? SELL No 98¢ $21 47d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 7? SELL No 98¢ $20 47d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 8? SELL No 67¢ $14 47d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 7? SELL No 54¢ $12 47d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8? SELL No 66¢ $11 47d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? SELL No 19¢ $4 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 527 history records