Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x961c…f93d other 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+1%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate65%73W / 40L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$42
politics 33% +$6
sports 3% +$5
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +19.5% +8.1% 100% 100% +8.1%
≤90d 11 +7.8% -2.5% 73% 64% -8.9%
all 113 +9.2% -1.2% 65% 27% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 27% -8.9%
10% -10.7% 19% -17.6%
15% -19.3% 13% -25.6%
20% -27.2% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses73 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage547d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 10 $7 +$10 +155%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 02 $2 +$1 +30%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 21 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $32 +$3 +9%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $14 −$9 -68%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Apr 01 $22 +$4 +16%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 30 $4 +$1 +29%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Mar 30 $23 +$10 +41%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Mar 24 $29 −$3 -10%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 22 $4 +$5 +135%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Mar 22 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 17 $2 $0 -19%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $8 +$4 +54%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 04 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar 02 $53 +$3 +6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $14 +$2 +16%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 14 $37 +$5 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $7 +$13 +198%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $14 +$3 +24%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 04 $6 +$2 +41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Feb 04 $29 +$5 +18%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 01 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026 Jan 31 $20 +$1 +3%
Over $30M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 28 $7 −$6 -80%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 27 $16 +$4 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Jan 25 $12 +$3 +29%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 21 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jan 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $63 −$7 -11%
Will LNG Esports win Demacia Cup 2025? Jan 02 $36 +$7 +20%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Dec 28 $3 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Dec 26 $65 +$1 +2%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 21 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 15 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 07 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 30 $54 +$2 +3%
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $17 +$2 +14%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Nov 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 05 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Oct 01 $7 +$33 +456%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $6 13d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 38¢ $4 50d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 38¢ $3 50d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $2 65d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 93¢ $20 65d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $5 76d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $5 76d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 79d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 79d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $5 81d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $7 83d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $7 83d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $16 83d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $16 83d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier BUY JD Gaming 86¢ $10 87d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier BUY JD Gaming 86¢ $12 87d
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 90d
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 90d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 71¢ $12 90d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 71¢ $12 90d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? SELL No 71¢ $26 93d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 79¢ $15 94d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 79¢ $15 94d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 72¢ $11 95d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March BUY Yes 11¢ $2 97d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March BUY Yes 11¢ $2 97d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March SELL Yes $2 100d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY Yes $1 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.72 · official $69.72 (match) · 281 history records