trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 85¢ | $1,250 | $2,121 | +$871 (+70%) |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 87¢ | $1,000 | $980 | −$20 (-2%) |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | Yes | 70¢ | 70¢ | $411 | $413 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 15¢ | $1,250 | $379 | −$871 (-70%) |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $2,442 | −$1,130 | -46% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $1,255 | −$130 | -10% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 12 | $1,000 | +$112 | +11% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 11 | $520 | −$7 | -1% |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Jun 07 | $118 | +$155 | +132% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 07 | $100 | −$35 | -35% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? | Jun 01 | $51 | −$19 | -37% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $85 | −$34 | -40% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic | May 30 | $70 | +$14 | +20% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 05 | $50 | +$34 | +68% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +8.4% | -2.0% | 33% | 33% | -26.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -7.8% | -16.5% | 33% | 33% | -26.6% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -7.8% | -16.5% | 33% | 33% | -26.6% |
| all | 10 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 40% | 40% | -25.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.7% | 40% | -25.9% |
| 10% | -18.4% | 20% | -33.0% |
| 15% | -26.2% | 20% | -39.5% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 20% | -45.4% |