Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:21:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9620…5052
sports · 792 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$219 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$261 · open +$84
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$961
Realized−$261
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses395 / 381
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions16
Markets (closed)776 / 792
History coverage205d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 16 History 776 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$27
14 days−$43
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 78¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $55 $70 +$15 (+27%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 53¢ 81¢ $41 $63 +$22 (+53%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 30¢ 42¢ $34 $48 +$14 (+42%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 72¢ 96¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+34%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 55¢ 74¢ $32 $43 +$11 (+33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $27 $30 +$2 (+9%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? Yes 35¢ 31¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $72 −$33 -46%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$8 +80%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $38 +$16 +44%
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? Jun 06 $41 +$12 +30%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 05 $50 −$20 -40%
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? Jun 03 $80 −$14 -17%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 02 $10 −$1 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $105 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $740 −$13 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $40 +$6 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $56 +$10 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 24 $70 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $27 −$18 -67%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 22 $164 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $106 $0 +0%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 20 $145 −$19 -13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $25 +$68 +270%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 14 $135 −$5 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 09 $5 +$5 +100%
Madrid: Lina Gjorcheska vs Alina Korneeva Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Madrid: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Alejandro Moro Canas Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Machac Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Selena Janicijevic Apr 08 $10 +$4 +42%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Arthur Rinderknech Apr 08 $5 +$4 +89%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Corentin Moutet vs Casper Ruud Apr 08 $5 +$5 +100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmane Apr 08 $5 +$5 +109%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Anhelina Kalinina vs Panna Udvardy Apr 08 $5 +$7 +134%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 08 $200 −$5 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 08 $65 −$7 -11%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $15 +$17 +112%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $20 +$49 +248%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $10 −$1 -7%
Madrid: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Polona Hercog Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid: Whitney Osuigwe vs Simona Waltert Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Paula Badosa vs Lilli Tagger Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Monza: Martin Landaluce vs Federico Arnaboldi Apr 07 $5 +$5 +96%
Campinas: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Santiago De La Fuente Apr 07 $5 +$5 +100%
Campinas: Lautaro Midon vs Jose Pereira Apr 07 $5 +$5 +100%
Monza: Jacopo Vasami vs Raul Brancaccio Apr 07 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12? Apr 07 $40 −$26 -66%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -84%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 7? Apr 07 $10 +$4 +42%
Sarasota: Daniil Glinka vs J.J. Wolf Apr 07 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $5 −$3 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 29% −$178
world 25% +$116
other 19% +$56
finance 17% −$80
crypto 3% −$18
politics 3% −$62
tech 3% −$7
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $70 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 40h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? BUY No 28¢ $10 42h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 43h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 43h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 43h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 45h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 45h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 45h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 45h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? SELL Yes 94¢ $18 46h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? SELL Yes 84¢ $40 46h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 47h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 50% -20.4%
≤30d 18 -6.1% -15.1% 39% 28% -12.8%
≤90d 233 -2.8% -12.0% 46% 45% -10.2%
all 776 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 49% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 49% -10.4%
10% -20.1% 47% -19.0%
15% -27.8% 42% -26.8%
20% -34.9% 36% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $960.71 · official $960.72 (match) · 2276 history records