Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x9621…0a73 sports 331 markets active 0h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,301 (+3%) realized +$7,323 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%160W / 169L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$852per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2,217est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,017
7 days−$453
14 days−$2,765
30 days−$3,361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,018
other 9% +$6,871
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.5% -19.0% 42% 37% -12.5%
≤30d 73 -7.1% -16.0% 45% 42% -15.7%
≤90d 215 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 44% -10.2%
all 329 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 44% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 44% -7.6%
10% -24.0% 41% -16.4%
15% -31.3% 34% -24.5%
20% -38.1% 28% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$408 vs −$354 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$2,528
Realized+$7,323
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses160 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$2,217
Open positions3
Markets (closed)329 / 331
History coverage229d
Avg bet$852
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 55¢ 55¢ $1,500 $1,486 −$14 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ 60¢ $750 $744 −$6 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Oilers vs. Ducks Jun 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $761 −$517 -68%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $607 −$49 -8%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1,013 +$626 +62%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $406 +$363 +89%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $607 −$49 -8%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $1,216 +$876 +72%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $761 −$750 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $811 +$698 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,824 +$151 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,624 −$620 -38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $456 +$319 +70%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $756 +$283 +38%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,720 −$1,098 -64%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $355 +$242 +68%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $253 −$12 -5%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 12 $355 −$16 -5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $355 +$266 +75%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $304 −$9 -3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $304 −$300 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $709 +$498 +70%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $253 +$205 +81%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 07 $2,943 −$336 -11%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $253 +$63 +25%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $2,725 −$2,700 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $1,217 +$58 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $865 +$378 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $2,531 −$2,500 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $1,115 −$1,100 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $304 −$245 -80%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $406 −$21 -5%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $430 −$425 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 02 $447 −$440 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $355 −$350 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 01 $355 −$25 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $406 +$312 +77%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 31 $355 +$112 +32%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $1,011 +$575 +57%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,221 +$1,541 +126%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $265 −$260 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $759 −$750 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $304 +$252 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $557 +$379 +68%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $812 +$788 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $810 −$33 -4%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 28 $297 −$292 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 28 $305 +$334 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 10m
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $1,520 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $759 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $244 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $761 25h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 55¢ $267 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 92¢ $1,639 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $507 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 60¢ $292 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $607 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $507 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $768 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $406 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Martin Damm 57¢ $558 3d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 61¢ $607 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 96¢ $2,092 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $1,216 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $761 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $304 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $102 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $609 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $354 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $507 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $775 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $304 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $456 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,040 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $756 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $965 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 56¢ $1,392 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,527.57 · official $2,527.57 (match) · 650 history records