Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9622…c630 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$898 (-17%) realized −$810 · open −$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$75
14 days+$248
30 days+$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$532
other 25% −$177
tech 11% +$73
sports 6% +$63
politics 5% −$252
economics 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1001.4% +896.5% 100% 50% +34.0%
≤30d 7 +305.1% +266.6% 71% 57% +17.7%
≤90d 7 +305.1% +266.6% 71% 57% +17.7%
all 56 +11.6% +1.0% 39% 38% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 38% -29.6%
10% -8.7% 38% -36.3%
15% -17.5% 36% -42.5%
20% -25.6% 34% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$69 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$622
Realized−$810
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 34
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 60
History coverage196d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $509 $419 −$90 (-18%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$75 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$54 -53%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$63 +206%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $259 +$207 +80%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $151 +$45 +30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $108 −$90 -83%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 07 $17 −$17 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 07 $25 −$25 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jan 07 $40 −$40 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 07 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 07 $70 +$133 +190%
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? Dec 22 $268 −$268 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11AM ET Dec 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 10AM ET Dec 16 $50 +$85 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3PM ET Dec 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 1PM ET Dec 15 $100 +$112 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2PM ET Dec 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 12PM ET Dec 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 11AM ET Dec 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 10AM ET Dec 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 3PM ET Dec 15 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 2AM ET Dec 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 2PM ET Dec 11 $50 +$44 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 9AM ET Dec 11 $150 +$54 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 11AM ET Dec 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8AM ET Dec 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 2AM ET Dec 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 10AM ET Dec 11 $50 +$48 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 11AM ET Dec 11 $50 +$54 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 9AM ET Dec 10 $100 +$71 +71%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 2AM ET Dec 10 $50 +$54 +108%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 3AM ET Dec 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 3PM ET Dec 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 2PM ET Dec 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 12PM ET Dec 09 $142 −$142 -100%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 09 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 9AM ET Dec 09 $75 +$83 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 10AM ET Dec 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 1AM ET Dec 09 $25 +$17 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 3AM ET Dec 09 $25 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 2AM ET Dec 09 $25 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 4PM ET Dec 09 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 3PM ET Dec 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Dec 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12PM ET Dec 08 $40 +$36 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 1PM ET Dec 08 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 11AM ET Dec 08 $256 +$185 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $272 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 39¢ $153 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Fra BUY 14¢ $154 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $46 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 100¢ $234 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 99¢ $232 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 100¢ $197 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 5¢ $18 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 60¢ $106 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 24¢ $31 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 27¢ $77 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 76¢ $151 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 51¢ $153 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $524 16d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $17 166d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 166d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $40 166d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $121 166d
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $131 182d
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $87 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $25 188d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $35 188d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $135 188d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $50 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $622.50 · official $623.48 (match) · 148 history records