Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x9622…ab9c other 69 markets active 18h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 53L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
politics 16% −$8
other 11% +$5
world 1% +$1
sports 1% +$36
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 56 +3.4% -6.5% 25% 16% -8.6%
all 68 +2.7% -7.1% 22% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 13% -9.4%
10% -16.0% 13% -18.1%
15% -24.1% 13% -26.0%
20% -31.6% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage597d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $80 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $369 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $256 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $124 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $132 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $125 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $125 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $125 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $122 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $129 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $126 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $130 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $119 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $10 +$7 +64%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $6 +$8 +146%
Devils vs. Rangers Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 06 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 18h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 19h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 36h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 37h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $76 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $19 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $19 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $7 8d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $27 9d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 15d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 16d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.25 · official $76.25 (match) · 271 history records