Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9622…c6f6 crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-11%) realized −$79 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%10W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$65
14 days−$101
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% −$39
other 27% +$29
sports 23% −$69
world 19% −$26
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -28.6% -35.4% 13% 13% -28.7%
≤30d 87 -18.4% -26.2% 11% 8% -23.3%
≤90d 87 -18.4% -26.2% 11% 8% -23.3%
all 87 -18.4% -26.2% 11% 8% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 8% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 7% -30.7%
15% -39.7% 6% -37.4%
20% -45.6% 3% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 77
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage20d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$90 +352%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $71 −$12 -17%
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 13 $36 −$5 -13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +106%
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -54%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $54 −$9 -16%
Will Yann Sommer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 11 $5 −$4 -79%
Will South Africa be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cu Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -7%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 8, 1PM ET? Jun 08 $15 −$2 -12%
Will England win? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $19 −$2 -9%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 9m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 9m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 35h
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 36h
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $10 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 32¢ $57 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $10 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $10 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $10 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $10 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $10 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $10 3d
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? SELL No 97¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $30 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 3d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.47 · official $3.97 (match) · 501 history records