trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +9.4% | -1.0% | 67% | 33% | -4.6% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 45% | 27% | -7.1% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -5.0% | -14.1% | 46% | 31% | -7.8% |
| all | 13 | -5.0% | -14.1% | 46% | 31% | -7.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.1% | 31% | -7.8% |
| 10% | -22.3% | 15% | -16.6% |
| 15% | -29.8% | 8% | -24.7% |
| 20% | -36.7% | 0% | -32.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 83¢ | 88¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 93¢ | 90¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $21 | +$9 | +40% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $17 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 11 | $25 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Jun 11 | $55 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $86 | −$7 | -9% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $94 | +$14 | +14% |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 03 | $43 | −$6 | -15% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? | Jun 03 | $2 | −$1 | -28% |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | May 26 | $2 | $0 | -18% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic | May 08 | $3 | −$3 | -99% |
| Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch? | May 08 | $2 | +$1 | +28% |