Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9625…1dee
crypto · 1251 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,228 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,243 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$108
Realized−$1,243
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses799 / 407
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions45
Markets (closed)1206 / 1251
History coverage453d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 45 History 1206 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$277
7 days−$243
14 days−$205
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 66¢ 82¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+26%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 74¢ 98¢ $7 $10 +$2 (+33%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 54¢ 51¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 28¢ 99¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+254%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 61¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 99¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+176%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 34¢ 82¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+143%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 61¢ 91¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 35¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 39¢ 77¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+98%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 43¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+94%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026? No 67¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+48%)
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No 65¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No 72¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $75 −$5 -6%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $53 +$4 +8%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $40 +$4 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1 +$1 +92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
BitBoy convicted? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 202 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 1? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lyon win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 42% +$73
politics 26% +$145
sports 20% −$1,276
other 4% +$43
economics 3% +$36
tech 2% −$255
world 2% +$68
weather 1% −$111
culture 0% +$49
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 81¢ $10 44m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 80¢ $58 47m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 86¢ $17 50m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 90¢ $5 54m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 90¢ $13 54m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 92¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 93¢ $10 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 89¢ $10 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 90¢ $9 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 100¢ $44 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 91¢ $40 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 51¢ $5 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 92¢ $30 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 9¢ $1 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 16¢ $1 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 84¢ $24 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 69¢ $1 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 75¢ $20 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 90¢ $1 2h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 88¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -54.0% -58.4% 28% 17% -39.7%
≤30d 190 -19.3% -27.0% 66% 23% -18.7%
≤90d 503 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 26% -8.9%
all 1206 -1.0% -10.4% 66% 35% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 35% -13.2%
10% -19.0% 26% -21.5%
15% -26.8% 20% -29.1%
20% -34.0% 16% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.54 · official $107.54 (match) · 3426 history records