Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9629…ee15
crypto · 474 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,372 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,135 · open +$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,005
Realized−$3,135
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses238 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions17
Markets (closed)457 / 474
History coverage4d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day695.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 17 History 457 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,236
7 days−$3,135
14 days−$3,135
30 days−$3,135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 72¢ 90¢ $611 $758 +$147 (+24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $302 $299 −$3 (-1%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? No 61¢ 90¢ $167 $248 +$80 (+48%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $193 $171 −$22 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $151 $148 −$3 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $94 $91 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $84 $82 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $73 $61 −$12 (-16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 25¢ 10¢ $75 $30 −$45 (-60%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 57¢ 48¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 72¢ 75¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Down 10¢ 4¢ $21 $10 −$11 (-53%)
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $24 $7 −$17 (-72%)
Brazil to win the second half? No 50¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Over 48¢ 47¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 65,000 and 70,000? Yes 34¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $226 +$70 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $134 −$129 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $112 −$106 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $89 −$26 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $291 +$433 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $107 −$105 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $66 +$49 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $207 +$97 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $199 +$10 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $317 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $71 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $46 −$43 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $56 −$53 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $272 +$58 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $365 +$33 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $510 +$192 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $254 −$119 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $197 −$190 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $55 −$52 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$35 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $125 +$132 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$133 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $218 −$174 -80%
Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 12 $290 −$170 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$22 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $254 +$54 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $245 +$166 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$78 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $67 +$29 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $126 −$123 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$49 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$31 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $237 +$50 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $89 −$85 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $454 +$52 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$2,467
tech 5% +$85
other 3% −$302
sports 1% −$430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $43 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $18 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $35 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $11 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $39 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $29 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $13 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $14 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $17 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $39 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $39 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $39 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $12 46m
Brazil to win the second half? BUY No 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 457 -10.3% -18.8% 52% 42% -13.7%
≤30d 457 -10.3% -18.8% 52% 42% -13.7%
≤90d 457 -10.3% -18.8% 52% 42% -13.7%
all 457 -10.3% -18.8% 52% 42% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover695.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 42% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 29% -22.0%
15% -33.7% 20% -29.5%
20% -40.2% 14% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,004.73 · official $1,962.30 · 3500 history records