Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9629…d22d
weather · 522 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses184 / 337
Open positions1
Markets (closed)521 / 522
History coverage77d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 521 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$21
14 days−$36
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Yes 43¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 22? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 21? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 1? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 11? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 4? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 31? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 27? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 26? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 29? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 22? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 24? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 21? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 10? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -65%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$3 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% −$32
crypto 9% −$2
economics 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -21.7% -29.1% 27% 25% -36.0%
≤30d 304 -2.0% -11.4% 37% 32% -14.0%
≤90d 521 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 31% -12.2%
all 521 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 31% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 31% -12.2%
10% -18.2% 27% -20.6%
15% -26.1% 25% -28.3%
20% -33.4% 21% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.29 · official $1.29 (match) · 1215 history records