Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x962a…aa6c sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,015 (+14%) realized +$1,494 · open +$521
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate67%48W / 24L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$59
14 days+$497
30 days+$1,293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 31% +$884
politics 28% +$679
finance 21% +$609
other 10% −$223
sports 8% +$28
world 1% +$53
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.0% +1.4% 100% 100% +1.4%
≤30d 13 +13.7% +2.8% 85% 77% +5.1%
≤90d 43 -7.5% -16.3% 63% 58% +3.5%
all 72 -0.1% -9.7% 67% 61% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 61% +2.8%
10% -18.3% 53% -7.0%
15% -26.2% 38% -16.0%
20% -33.4% 25% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$39 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$3,825
Realized+$1,494
Unrealized+$521
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses48 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage107d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? No 79¢ 91¢ $3,304 $3,825 +$521 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 17 $493 +$59 +12%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $2,630 +$437 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $333 +$90 +27%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? May 30 $944 +$313 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $409 +$96 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $529 +$111 +21%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 30 $1,318 −$157 -12%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $529 +$158 +30%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 22 $66 +$22 +33%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $215-$220 on the final day of trading of t May 22 $122 +$76 +62%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? May 22 $97 −$45 -47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 20 $52 +$5 +10%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 20 $610 +$127 +21%
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? May 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 16 $44 −$44 -99%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $12 +$12 +97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? May 06 $210 −$210 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 04 $55 −$54 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 01 $113 +$31 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $267 +$70 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $291 +$172 +59%
Kings vs. Kraken Apr 14 $95 +$56 +59%
Will Leavitt say "Death to America" during the next White House press Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 13 $10 +$4 +35%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Senators vs. Islanders Apr 11 $45 +$37 +81%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 10 $71 −$31 -44%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $71 +$46 +64%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Corentin Moutet vs Casper Ruud Apr 08 $96 +$7 +7%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Apr 01 $10 −$4 -39%
Islanders vs. Sabres Apr 01 $60 +$32 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 31 $291 +$136 +47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 31 $80 +$31 +38%
Bruins vs. Sabres Mar 26 $40 −$40 -100%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $50 +$21 +43%
Sabres vs. Kings Mar 21 $30 +$24 +82%
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Mar 21 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? Mar 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 10? Mar 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Oilers vs. Blues Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $2 +$1 +36%
Sharks vs. Sabres Mar 11 $30 +$16 +54%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 11 $151 +$20 +14%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 10 $30 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 91¢ $161 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 90¢ $47 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $252 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 85¢ $726 5d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 84¢ $114 5d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 83¢ $174 5d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 80¢ $16 5d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 72¢ $52 6d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 75¢ $900 6d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 75¢ $36 6d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 73¢ $62 6d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 75¢ $909 6d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 73¢ $80 6d
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,630 16d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? BUY No 94¢ $687 23d
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el SELL Yes 100¢ $687 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY No 81¢ $315 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY No 79¢ $90 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY No 79¢ $4 24d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? BUY No 88¢ $34 24d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? BUY No 82¢ $155 24d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? SELL No 97¢ $597 24d
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el BUY Yes 84¢ $55 24d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? SELL Yes 9¢ $55 24d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? BUY Yes 47¢ $311 24d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? SELL No 97¢ $312 24d
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el BUY Yes 75¢ $474 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 96¢ $92 25d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? SELL No 94¢ $88 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,824.76 · official $3,824.77 (match) · 233 history records