Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x962e…1d75 sports 318 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,232 (+4%) realized +$561 · open +$671
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%192W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$284
14 days+$99
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$444
world 5% +$664
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +6.8% -3.4% 69% 69% -0.2%
≤30d 89 +3.2% -6.6% 63% 62% -7.4%
≤90d 242 -4.1% -13.2% 60% 60% -10.2%
all 311 -2.2% -11.5% 62% 61% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 61% -8.3%
10% -20.0% 51% -17.1%
15% -27.7% 38% -25.1%
20% -34.8% 24% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$75 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$2,540
Realized+$561
Unrealized+$671
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses192 / 119
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions4
Markets (closed)311 / 318
History coverage165d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 64¢ 90¢ $1,641 $2,315 +$674 (+41%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Madison Keys 76¢ 74¢ $113 $111 −$2 (-2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Alicia Dudeney vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Alicia Dudeney 36¢ 35¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-3%)
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Linda Noskova 59¢ 60¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 20 $196 +$54 +27%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 20 $75 +$50 +67%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $162 −$161 -99%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $54 +$35 +65%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $88 +$35 +40%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $110 +$111 +102%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $73 +$23 +32%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $110 +$31 +28%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $145 +$17 +12%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $121 +$55 +46%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $43 +$40 +93%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $202 +$47 +24%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 17 $72 −$71 -98%
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Jun 16 $137 +$47 +34%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $48 +$49 +103%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $51 +$42 +84%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $113 +$41 +36%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $207 +$57 +27%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $48 −$47 -99%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $60 −$59 -99%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $76 −$75 -99%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 15 $139 −$138 -99%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 15 $14 +$8 +57%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 15 $49 +$60 +124%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 15 $113 +$29 +25%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 15 $154 +$109 +70%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $114 −$113 -99%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $26 −$26 -99%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 09 $109 −$108 -99%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $62 +$38 +62%
Lyon: Calvin Hemery vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 09 $103 +$61 +60%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $335 −$136 -41%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 09 $157 +$59 +38%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $252 +$61 +24%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Lloyd Harris Jun 08 $61 −$12 -20%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $109 −$30 -27%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $100 +$59 +59%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 08 $32 −$31 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 08 $36 +$15 +42%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 08 $26 −$26 -99%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 08 $199 −$197 -99%
Makarska: Rebecca Sramkova vs Tara Wurth Jun 07 $117 −$45 -38%
Foggia: Giorgia Pedone vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 07 $59 +$20 +34%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pierluigi Basile Jun 07 $94 +$26 +27%
Birmingham: Harry Wendelken vs Mark Lajal Jun 07 $81 +$39 +48%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $77 +$44 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina BUY Daria Snigur 63¢ $70 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 59¢ $50 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 76¢ $114 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 79¢ $129 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Alicia Dudeney vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Alicia Dudeney 36¢ $67 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 42¢ $102 27h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Xiyu Wang 78¢ $196 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu BUY Alina Charaeva 75¢ $162 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Darja Vidmanova 59¢ $75 2d
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 68¢ $56 4d
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 71¢ $88 4d
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 77¢ $110 4d
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Felix Balshaw 71¢ $21 4d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 40¢ $72 4d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 49¢ $110 4d
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 81¢ $202 5d
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 51¢ $43 5d
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 68¢ $121 5d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 60¢ $54 5d
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 59¢ $48 6d
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 51¢ $60 6d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 75¢ $73 6d
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 69¢ $76 6d
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 73¢ $113 6d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $145 6d
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 75¢ $139 6d
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 48¢ $48 6d
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 74¢ $137 6d
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 46¢ $29 6d
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 54¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,540.02 · official $2,540.02 (match) · 557 history records