Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
96 0x9630…7cee sports 12 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$66 (+23%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$38
other 38% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +22.4% +10.8% 67% 58% +10.4%
≤30d 12 +22.4% +10.8% 67% 58% +10.4%
≤90d 12 +22.4% +10.8% 67% 58% +10.4%
all 12 +22.4% +10.8% 67% 58% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.8% 58% +10.4%
10% +0.2% 58% -0.2%
15% -9.5% 42% -9.8%
20% -18.4% 42% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $29 −$25 -86%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $28 +$28 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$36 +140%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records