Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9631…a38c weather 1818 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,007 (+19%) realized +$1,909 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%227W / 1114L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day63.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$950now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$322
7 days−$25
14 days+$622
30 days+$1,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% +$1,226
other 30% +$100
sports 6% +$261
politics 5% +$87
tech 3% +$77
culture 3% +$50
world 2% −$18
crypto 1% +$24
economics 1% +$3
finance 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 -40.1% -45.8% 15% 15% -14.0%
≤30d 599 -12.8% -21.1% 23% 23% +13.5%
≤90d 1341 -36.7% -42.7% 17% 17% +0.9%
all 1341 -36.7% -42.7% 17% 17% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.7% 17% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -48.2% 16% -8.8%
15% -53.2% 15% -17.6%
20% -57.8% 14% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$4 · ×6.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$950
Realized+$1,909
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses227 / 1114
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions150
Markets (closed)1341 / 1818
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day63.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 150 History 1341 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 35¢ 98¢ $38 $108 +$70 (+183%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? Yes 31¢ 99¢ $17 $53 +$37 (+219%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $29 $52 +$23 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $38 $50 +$12 (+31%)
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 83¢ 91¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+10%)
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 59¢ 77¢ $29 $38 +$9 (+29%)
Will CDOriente Petrolero vs. CA Nacional Potosí end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 50¢ $17 $35 +$18 (+102%)
Will CDOriente Petrolero win on 2026-06-21? Yes 27¢ 43¢ $19 $30 +$11 (+59%)
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Yes 63¢ 97¢ $18 $27 +$9 (+53%)
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? Yes 26¢ 52¢ $13 $25 +$12 (+98%)
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 47¢ 42¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-10%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 40¢ 99¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+148%)
Will Club Independiente Petrolero vs. CDOriente Petrolero end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 56¢ $12 $25 +$13 (+107%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26? Yes 38¢ 60¢ $16 $24 +$9 (+57%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Yes 24¢ 61¢ $9 $22 +$14 (+157%)
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision? Yes 18¢ 49¢ $8 $22 +$14 (+172%)
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-7%)
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision? Yes 74¢ 44¢ $32 $19 −$13 (-40%)
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-06-13? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $15 $19 +$3 (+22%)
Will CDOriente Petrolero win on 2026-06-13? Yes 28¢ 43¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+54%)
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 10¢ 30¢ $6 $19 +$12 (+197%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 26? Yes 23¢ 98¢ $4 $16 +$12 (+327%)
Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-06-21? Yes 40¢ 43¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 64¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+486%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 350 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on April 14 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C or below on April 17? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on April 8? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 3? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 60-61°F on April 12? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 3? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 27? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 8? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 29? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 20? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or below on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 47°F or below on Apri Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 13 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 29 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 8? Jun 26 $8 −$9 -107%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 16? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 4? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 8? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12 Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 24? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on April 20? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on April 24? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 18? Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 27 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 13 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on April 18? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 25? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on April 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on April 14? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on April 15? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Khamenei post 160-179 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 22? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C or below on April 9? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 2? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27m
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 36m
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 37m
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 37m
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $38 37m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? BUY Yes 75¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 4h
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $950.46 · official $950.47 (match) · 3500 history records