Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:02:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
96 0x9631…89a1 sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$73,535 (+7%) realized +$71,095 · open +$2,440
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate88%142W / 19L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$6,289per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$93,632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$7,161
14 days+$6,486
30 days+$17,328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 56% +$30,926
world 20% +$27,751
sports 12% +$1,877
tech 6% +$10,423
other 4% −$554
politics 3% −$1,114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.3% -5.7% 94% 6% -3.9%
≤30d 21 +4.0% -5.9% 86% 10% -3.2%
≤90d 74 +10.4% -0.1% 84% 9% -3.6%
all 161 +12.4% +1.7% 88% 7% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 7% -3.0%
10% -8.0% 3% -12.2%
15% ← realistic here -16.9% 3% -20.7%
20% -25.0% 3% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$3,881) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$517 vs −$342 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.3 per $1 lost it wins $11.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$93,632
Realized+$71,095
Unrealized+$2,440
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses142 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions4
Markets (closed)161 / 165
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$6,289
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 89¢ 87¢ $39,213 $38,375 −$838 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 88¢ 99¢ $25,779 $29,035 +$3,256 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 78¢ $14,739 $14,171 −$568 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $11,460 $12,050 +$590 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $864 −$17 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $294 +$5 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $190 +$10 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $28,384 +$1,246 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $9,017 +$548 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $17,660 +$517 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $3,965 +$273 +7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $874 +$25 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $500 +$9 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1,797 +$71 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,561 +$52 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $41,018 +$4,325 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $8,598 +$82 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $4,504 −$675 -15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 29 $70,002 +$6,679 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $46,752 +$4,078 +9%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 22 $1,047 +$137 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 21 $10,001 −$52 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 15 $27,092 +$785 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 15 $32,540 +$1,678 +5%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 11 $895 +$65 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $2,410 +$70 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $53,509 +$2,429 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 06 $33,062 +$1,237 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 01 $2,644 +$62 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $40,864 +$2,475 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 30 $6,627 −$115 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 30 $8,539 +$473 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 29 $16,930 +$839 +5%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20 Apr 28 $3,983 +$164 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $65,292 +$10,310 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $567 +$27 +5%
Will 70-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 21 $570 +$24 +4%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-Ap Apr 21 $1,655 −$1,649 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 16 $1,857 −$654 -35%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 15 $4,086 −$315 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 15 $9,566 +$934 +10%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 14 $320 +$19 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 14 $21,967 +$584 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 13 $231 +$8 +3%
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian S Apr 13 $358 +$19 +5%
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian S Apr 13 $235 +$20 +8%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Apr 12 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Apr 12 $1,339 +$47 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 10 $41,150 +$3,364 +8%
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-Apr Apr 10 $482 +$91 +19%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $12,925 +$458 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 91¢ $50 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $118 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $276 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $43 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $9 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $34 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $73 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $42 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $42 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $74 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $17 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $0 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $43 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $17 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $109 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $74 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $142 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $112 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $17 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $8 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $10 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $110 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 85¢ $846 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $164 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $300 31h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $432 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93,631.71 · official $93,631.71 (match) · 3500 history records