Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x9631…29f1 sports 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$206 (+1%) realized +$161 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate57%78W / 59L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$190
14 days+$331
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 23% +$204
crypto 22% −$54
politics 21% +$66
sports 18% −$23
economics 11% −$11
other 5% −$34
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +28.6% +16.3% 71% 57% +16.5%
≤30d 43 -4.1% -13.2% 53% 30% -9.3%
≤90d 101 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 34% -8.3%
all 137 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 34% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 34% -9.0%
10% -16.9% 32% -17.7%
15% -24.9% 28% -25.7%
20% -32.3% 26% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$27 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1,403
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses78 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions12
Markets (closed)137 / 150
History coverage145d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $235 $233 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $213 $212 −$1 (-0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $151 $191 +$40 (+26%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 84¢ 96¢ $119 $136 +$16 (+14%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 75¢ 74¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $38 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 61¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $100 −$12 -12%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$9 +182%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 16 $121 +$7 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $150 +$103 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $244 +$100 +41%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $42 +$165 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $37 +$13 +34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 14 $40 −$37 -92%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $106 +$7 +7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $16 +$14 +93%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $70 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $300 $0 -0%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 07 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 05 $237 −$9 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $24 −$24 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $11 +$19 +178%
Will Dan Muse win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 02 $51 −$51 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 02 $36 −$36 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $250 +$17 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $39 +$36 +93%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $500 +$8 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $29 +$1 +4%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $35 −$34 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $48 −$47 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $12 +$8 +67%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 29 $61 +$24 +39%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $20 −$20 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $10 +$4 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $45 −$9 -21%
Will Lindy Ruff win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? May 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 23 $34 +$93 +277%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $71 +$24 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $113 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $78 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $58 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 75¢ $76 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $24 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $20 4h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? SELL No 92¢ $93 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $37 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $23 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? SELL No 92¢ $1 4d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY No 79¢ $0 4d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY No 79¢ $31 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY No 78¢ $4 4d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY No 79¢ $72 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $200 6d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $220 6d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $313 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 6d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $128 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,402.64 · official $1,402.96 (match) · 556 history records