Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9632…a379 sports 734 markets active 0h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$816 (-0%) realized −$834 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate69%503W / 228L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$342
14 days−$1,169
30 days−$1,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$133
sports 7% −$51
crypto 7% −$344
culture 3% −$2
weather 2% +$6
politics 1% +$3
tech 1% +$2
world 1% −$83
finance 0% −$311
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 256 -7.4% -16.2% 46% 41% -14.1%
≤30d 316 -7.3% -16.1% 49% 37% -20.9%
≤90d 429 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 29% -12.8%
all 731 -2.5% -11.8% 69% 17% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 17% -10.0%
10% -20.3% 13% -18.6%
15% -28.0% 9% -26.5%
20% -35.0% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$18 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$834
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses503 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions3
Markets (closed)731 / 734
History coverage194d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 731 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 57¢ 97¢ $97 $164 +$67 (+69%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Over 56¢ 56¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $45 +$67 +148%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $49 +$22 +45%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$8 -31%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $48 +$10 +21%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 −$9 -18%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$4 +18%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $41 −$7 -18%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$6 -12%
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$5 -11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$9 -19%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$16 -31%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $48 +$48 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $48 +$8 +16%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 +$8 +19%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 +$5 +14%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$78 +165%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 −$5 -15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 +$5 +9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 +$10 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$25 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $22 +$53 +238%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell Jun 16 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $48 +$99 +206%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $55 +$10 +19%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $51 +$83 +164%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 +$2 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $49 −$2 -3%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $22 +$9 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$7 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 93¢ $18 9m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 59¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 45¢ $32 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $48 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 39¢ $45 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $48 4h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $3 4h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $48 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 68¢ $49 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $48 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $57 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $11 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $5 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $5 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $48 19h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 30¢ $48 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 23h
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner SELL University War 70¢ $41 23h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 70¢ $27 23h
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 2 Winner SELL University War 70¢ $33 23h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) SELL University War 72¢ $44 23h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) SELL LYON 65¢ $45 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $39 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.32 · official $212.33 (match) · 2249 history records