Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9637…a576 sports 1757 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,500 (-4%) realized −$2,389 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%492W / 1224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$1,046est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,589now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,796
7 days+$2,966
14 days+$1,943
30 days−$1,244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,848
other 1% −$482
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 +32.6% +20.0% 27% 27% +13.2%
≤30d 529 -14.3% -22.5% 21% 21% -15.4%
≤90d 1586 -4.0% -13.1% 29% 29% -12.4%
all 1716 -5.4% -14.4% 29% 29% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 29% -13.4%
10% -22.6% 29% -21.7%
15% -30.1% 29% -29.3%
20% -36.9% 28% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$31 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,589
Realized−$2,389
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses492 / 1224
Est. fees paid−$1,046
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1716 / 1757
History coverage132d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1716 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 50¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 35¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 43¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 24¢ 30¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Over 13¢ 16¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 27¢ 28¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 16¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Over 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 22¢ 19¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Over 4¢ 4¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Over 13¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Over 9¢ 8¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Over 9¢ 8¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 6¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$149 +291%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$155 +152%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$212 +414%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 +$148 +146%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $51 +$516 +1005%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 +$212 +413%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 +$176 +172%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$282 +549%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 +$713 +1388%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 +$242 +237%
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $102 +$201 +197%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 9¢ $36 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $26 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $26 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $102 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $26 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $26 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $26 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $26 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $51 5h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 21¢ $51 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $26 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $51 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $51 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $102 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 16¢ $51 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $102 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $26 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $51 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,589.10 · official $1,624.25 · 3500 history records