Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
96 0x9637…3050 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,465 (+29%) realized +$2,424 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$563per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,350
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 13 +29.4% +17.1% 77% 77% +16.3%
all 13 +29.4% +17.1% 77% 77% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 77% +16.3%
10% +5.9% 77% +5.2%
15% -4.3% 77% -5.0%
20% -13.7% 54% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$344 vs −$374 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized+$2,424
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage61d
Avg bet$563
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Over 58¢ 66¢ $315 $356 +$41 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 07 $7 +$4 +61%
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $569 −$107 -19%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 02 $538 −$499 -93%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $81 +$45 +55%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $817 +$583 +71%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 01 $611 +$454 +74%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $524 −$517 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $1,606 +$612 +38%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $1,430 +$591 +41%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $897 +$532 +59%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $187 +$119 +64%
Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $551 +$240 +44%
Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $298 +$256 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $321 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY 42¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 52d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 64¢ $461 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $12 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $22 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 55d
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.88 · official $365.88 · 97 history records