trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 47¢ | 46¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 60¢ | 60¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-4%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? | Yes | 57¢ | 26¢ | $20 | $9 | −$11 (-54%) |
| Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | $10 | $7 | −$2 (-25%) |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 74¢ | 55¢ | $7 | $6 | −$2 (-26%) |
| Will "Scott" or "Bessent" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $14 | $0 | −$14 (-100%) |
| Will "Tariff" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 87¢ | 0¢ | $17 | $0 | −$17 (-100%) |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | Jun 12 | $21 | +$13 | +60% |
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | Jun 12 | $11 | +$8 | +74% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Jun 12 | $9 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will "Democracy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast | Jan 12 | $12 | +$3 | +27% |
| Will "Groq" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Jan 10 | $13 | +$6 | +45% |
| Will "Tariff" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Jan 09 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Will "Scott" or "Bessent" be said during the next episode of the All-I | Jan 09 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | Jan 09 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +47.1% | +33.1% | 100% | 67% | +37.5% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +47.1% | +33.1% | 100% | 67% | +37.5% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +47.1% | +33.1% | 100% | 67% | +37.5% |
| all | 8 | -10.9% | -19.4% | 62% | 50% | -18.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.4% | 50% | -18.0% |
| 10% | -27.1% | 50% | -25.8% |
| 15% | -34.2% | 38% | -33.0% |
| 20% | -40.6% | 25% | -39.6% |