Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x9639…c5db other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$395 (+23%) realized +$396 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$349
7 days+$393
14 days+$393
30 days+$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$400
crypto 5% −$43
sports 2% +$60
finance 2% −$25
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.2% +18.7% 83% 83% +28.7%
≤30d 7 +107.7% +87.9% 86% 86% +36.2%
≤90d 7 +107.7% +87.9% 86% 86% +36.2%
all 18 +10.0% -0.5% 50% 50% +22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 50% +22.0%
10% -10.0% 44% +10.3%
15% -18.7% 28% -0.4%
20% -26.7% 17% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late +89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$24 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized+$396
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage252d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $326 $325 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $260 $259 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $191 +$62 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $191 +$52 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $199 +$267 +134%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $144 +$72 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$44 +44%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $15 +$85 +567%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $23 +$8 +35%
Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 26 $2 $0 +15%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 26 $7 −$5 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 23? Oct 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 22? Oct 22 $20 +$13 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 22? Oct 22 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 22? Oct 21 $15 −$3 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? Oct 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $131 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $263 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $191 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $191 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $84 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $199 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $144 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 241d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 241d
Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings? SELL No 54¢ $2 241d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $23 241d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 242d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $2 242d
Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 47¢ $2 243d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $7 244d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 23? BUY Yes $9 245d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 23? BUY Yes $9 245d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 22? SELL Yes $0 245d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 245d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 22? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 245d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 22? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 245d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 22? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 245d
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $15 246d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 246d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 246d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 22? SELL No $12 247d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 22? BUY No $15 247d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $584.09 · official $584.09 (match) · 44 history records