Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x963b…f0a7
crypto · 1600 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$15 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1435 / 164
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1599 / 1600
History coverage119d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1599 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 91¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$5
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 31m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 261 +3.1% -6.7% 90% 64% -6.5%
≤30d 341 +2.2% -7.5% 89% 68% -7.6%
≤90d 586 +0.4% -9.2% 87% 64% -9.1%
all 1599 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 26% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 26% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.19 · official $4.19 (match) · 3500 history records